A Simulation Approach to Estimating Aircraft Mission Capable Rates for the United States Air Force

This paper presents the results of a simulation model designed to estimate aircraft Mission Capable Rates (MCR) for the United States Air Force. This simulation model originated out of the need to estimate the MCR for different modernization schemes to be implemented on the Air Force C-5 Galaxy aircraft. Assigned to the Air Mobility Command (AMC), the C-5 is one of our nation’s only two strategic airlift aircraft that can carry large outsize cargo (e.g., helicopters and tanks). The other outsize capable strategic airlift aircraft is the C-17 Globemaster III. At the same time, the C-5 is one of the Air Force’s least reliable aircraft. This means that AMC has a deficiency in meeting all of its wartime cargo airlift missions. To address this problem, AMC embarked on a year-long Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) study in 1999 to determine the best value solution for the Air Force to meet its cargo airlift requirements. Integral to this analysis is the aforementioned simulation model used to estimate C-5 MCR. This paper reviews the different alternatives examined in the AoA and presents the details of the simulation effort to estimate the MCR for these different options.